Philip Kirby Racing

Racehorse Trainer based at Richmond, North Yorkshire

Analysis of the Cesarawitch

We love this article…and its much better written than anything i can put! I am just trying to remember the source and will credit it shortly.

The Betfred Cesarewitch, the second leg of the Autumn Double, takes centre stage this weekend and we take a detailed look at the marathon event before highlighting our three against the field…

3.50 Newmarket – Betfred Cesarewitch Handicap (2m2f, 3yo+, 34 runners)

Saturday’s marathon event famously starts in Cambridgeshire but finishes in Suffolk and it’s the big betting heat on what is now called Future Champions Day.

The maximum field of 34 line up and we’ve got a four-way battle for favouritism between Domination, Pallasator, Smoky Hill and Tiger Cliff with the bookies going 8/1 the field which tells you all you need to know about just how competitive this year’s renewal is.

Betfred Cesarewitch
Antepost Win And Each Way

We’re going to take a look at the key trends and then the main contenders to try and fathom out just where the value lies.

Key trends in recent years
Not surprisingly the first requirement is finding a horse who sees out every yard of the 2m2f trip.

With a maximum field of 34 runners and the race run at full tilt from the outset, it’s no surprise that every one of the last ten winners had previously won over at least two miles, either on the Flat or over jumps.

That removes no fewer than 16 of the 34 including Pallasator (just five runs to date and yet to go further than 1m6f) and Smoky Hill (came close with a 1m7f success at Fontainebleau).

From an age perspective we should put a special focus on six-year-olds and over as six out of the last ten winners fit into that category. Just two three-year-olds have prevailed over the last 20 years and that tally will soon be 2/21 as none line up this time around.

Aaim To Prosper became the first ever dual winner when adding last year’s success to his 2010 triumph but there is a strong pattern of horses who have run well in the race in the past doing so again.

And talking of Aaim To Prosper, Brian Meehan’s charge lumped top weight to victory last year, underlining that those near the head of the handicap have a fine record over the last ten years, with seven carrying 8-11 or more.

Recent good form is a pre-requisite – you have to go back to Landing Light in 2003 for the last horse to finish outside the top six on their previous run. Indeed eight of the last nine were in the top four.

In terms of significant pointers from other races, the Northumberland Plate (Oriental Fox and Brockwell both placed, with Moidore and Scatter Dice also in the top six) is the one the stands out.

Combining these other factors gives us a short list of Chiberta King, Domination, Platinum, Lieutenant Miller, Seaside Sizzler, Cosimo De Medici, Los Nadis and Jonny Delta.

Form focus
With eight on our shortlist from the trends we need to take a close look at them from both a form and going perspective and also see if any of those who missed out on the age barrier are worth a second glance because it’s not impossible for four-year-olds (two winners from 102 attempts in the last 10 years) and five-year-olds (one from 78) to win the race, just far less likely than six-year-olds and upwards (six in 134) according to the stats.

And it soon becomes apparent that Domination holds strong claims. Charles Byrnes’ runner has shone on both the Flat and over hurdles as have so many previous winners of this race.

He won over course and distance when landing the Cesarewitch Trial last September on good to firm going but by the time the big race itself came round the ground had turned against him and he instead ran in the Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham the following month.

This time around everything appears to be slotting into place. The going is good to firm for Saturday (and should go no further than good even if the predicted rain arrives on Friday) while the six-year-old has been kept fresh since back-to-back hurdle wins at Cork in August on his favoured good to firm surface.

The one slight point against him is an average draw in stall 16. You wouldn’t expect the draw to have a huge bearing over 2m2f but the evidence lately has suggested low is best, though this is far from insurmountable as Never Can Tell (36) in 2011 and Caracciola (25) in 2008 have both defied a high number.

Platinum is also interesting given his victory in the Old Borough Handicap over 1m6f at Haydock last time. Philip Kirby’s charge kept on well that day and had a whole host of his rivals in this well behind, making his 20/1 price tag for this hard to explain.

For example Oriental Fox was over 20 lengths behind that day and re-opposes on exactly the same terms yet is half the odds. And Pallasator, also around the 10/1 mark, is at least four pounds better off but has just under two lengths to make up, has yet to run over 2m+ and looks priced up on Sir Mark Prescott’s formidable reputation rather than his own form.

Lieutenant Miller‘s consistency is his strong suit – only once in 11 runs over both codes in the last two years has Nicky Henderson’s runner been out of the first three.

His handler won this with Caracciola in 2008 but you do just get the impression that one or two are likely to get the better of him again.

Of the rest Chiberta King has struggled in his two runs since winning the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot, Seaside Sizzler looks a touch one-paced, while Cosimo De Medici and Jim Goldie duo Los Nadis and Jonny Delta simply don’t have the form to suggest they will contend at the sharp end.

And of those ruled out on the age count it’s Tiger Cliff who is hardest to leave out of the equation.

Lady Cecil’s four-year-old has had a stellar season and Aaim To Prosper showed 12 months ago that it is possible to win off the top weight of 9-10.

Tiger Cliff has been given a decent break since landing the Ebor in fine style in August and has that key weapon of a turn of foot allied to his undoubted stamina.

He’s yet to be unplaced in seven runs to date, handles most types of going (winning on good to firm at Newmarket back in May) and has now drifted out to a backable each-way price on account of a high draw (32).

VERDICT:
This is once again a tricky puzzle to solve and getting the best each-way terms is vital to at least try and boost the chances of a return.

Our 1-2-3-4 are Domination, Tiger Cliff, Platinum and Lieutenant Miller and at the prices the one which makes the most appeal is PLATINUM who seems to be the forgotten horse of the race following his Haydock success just over a month ago.

That was his third victory on the bounce and the Middleham raider would surely be a shorter price if he hailed from a bigger stable.

His connections have done wonders with him this term and they also look set to get the rain they were hoping for to take the ground towards good.

Both Bet Victor and Sky Bet are paying five places and go 20/1 and that’s the route we’ll be taking.

Selection:
Platinum each-way at 20/1 (Bet Victor and Sky Bet, a quarter the odds 1,2,3,4,5).

And courtesy of Attheraces….

No/Drw
Silk
Form
Horse Age / Wt
Jockey / Trainer
OR
1(30)

White, red seams, red and white quartered cap 132-121
Full form
Tiger Cliff (IRE) 49 CATR Tracker
b g Tiger Hill – Verbania (In The Wings)
4 9 – 10 104
2(20)

Royal blue, white spots, white sleeves, royal blue armlets and spots on white cap 203501
Full form
Oriental Fox (GER) (ex4) 21 CDATR Tracker
CH g Lomitas – Oriental pearl (Big Shuffle)
5 9 – 10 104
3(34)

Grey, orange star, grey sleeves, orange stars, orange cap 124-711
Full form
Thecornishcockney 226 ATR Tracker
bl g Cockney Rebel – Glittering Image (Sadler’s Wells)
4 9 – 8t 102
4(1)

Pink, dark blue triple diamond, diamonds on sleeves 25-5136
Full form
Chiberta King 29 CATR Tracker
b g King’s Best – Glam Rock (Nashwan)
7 9 – 8p 102
5(7)

White, dark blue diamond, sleeves and cap 4/111-3
Full form
Pallasator 35 BFATR Tracker
 b g Motivator – Ela Athena (Ezzoud)
4 9 – 6 100
6(16)

Pink, white epaulets, white and pink striped sleeves, pink cap, white star 201-012
Full form
Domination 75 (48J)  CDATR Tracker
b g Motivator – Soliza (Intikhab)
6 9 – 1 95
7(5)

Mauve, yellow seams, yellow cap 612-27
Full form
Earth Amber 164 ATR Tracker
ch f Hurricane Run – Too Marvelous (Dansili)
4 9 – 0 94
8(22)

Royal blue, light green epaulets 116160
Full form
Broxbourne (IRE) 21 ATR Tracker
b f Refuse To Bend – Rafting (Darshaan)
4 9 – 0 94
9(21)

Pink, emerald green seams, striped sleeves, hooped cap 152111
Full form
Platinum (IRE) (ex4) 35 ATR Tracker
b g Azamour – Dazzling Park (Warning)
6 9 – 0p 94
10(2)

Light blue, dark blue cross of lorraine, hooped sleeves, striped cap 1-13632
Full form
Clowance Estate (IRE) 35 ATR Tracker
b g Teofilo – Whirly Bird (Nashwan)
4 8 – 13 93
11(14)

Red, light green cap 17-3714
Full form
Smoky Hill (IRE) 27 ATR Tracker
gr c Galileo – Danaskaya (Danehill)
4 8 – 11 91
12(32)

WHITE, RED seams, WHITE cap, RED spots 13-2132
Full form
Lieutenant Miller 73 DBFATR Tracker
 b g Beat All – Still Runs Deep (Karinga Bay)
7 8 – 11 91
13(17)

Royal blue, yellow stripe, sleeves and cap 343573
Full form
Brockwell 21 BFATR Tracker
b g Singspiel – Noble Plum (King’s Best)
4 8 – 11h1 91
14(15)

Dark blue, white chevron, white and dark blue striped sleeves 926624
Full form
Moidore 22 ATR Tracker
b g Galileo – Flash of Gold (Darshaan)
4 8 – 10 90
15(36)

Yellow, black chevron, check cap 11510/8
Full form
Big Easy (GER) 116 ATR Tracker
b g Ransom O’War – Basilea Gold (Monsun)
6 8 – 10 90
16(35)

Royal blue, white hollow box, checked sleeves and cap 7-14333
Full form
Seaside Sizzler 34 ATR Tracker
ch g Rahy – Via Borghese (Seattle Dancer)
6 8 – 8tv 88
17(18)

Dark green, red cap, dark green diamond 725604
Full form
Scatter Dice (IRE) 13 ATR Tracker
ch f Manduro – Sensation (Soviet Star)
4 8 – 8v1 88
18(6)

Dark blue, yellow chevron hoop, yellow cap 1/5-7324
Full form
Waterclock (IRE) 39 ATR Tracker
ch g Notnowcato – Waterfall One (Nashwan)
4 8 – 8p1 88
19(19)

Emerald green and white diabolo, black sleeves, white cap 083614
Full form
Cosimo De Medici 21 CDATR Tracker
b g Medicean – Wish (Danehill)
6 8 – 7 87
20(8)

Dark blue and pink stripes, white cap 72-8725
Full form
Albert Bridge 21 ATR Tracker
  g g Hernando – Alvarita (Selkirk)
5 8 – 7 87
21(27)

Grey, pink epaulets, quartered cap 163727
Full form
Cousin Khee 35 ATR Tracker
b g Sakhee – Cugina (Distant Relative)
6 8 – 7 87
22(31)

Light blue and yellow check, red sleeves and cap 031600
Full form
Nanton (USA) 21 ATR Tracker
gr g Spinning World – Grab the Green (Cozzene)
11 8 – 5 85
23(4)

Royal blue, light blue sleeves, light blue and yellow quartered cap 515110
Full form
Poyle Thomas 35 ATR Tracker
b g Rail Link – Lost In Lucca (Inchinor)
4 8 – 4p1 84
24(33)

Terracotta, emerald green cap and tassel 413510
Full form
Eagle Rock (IRE) (ex4) 21 ATR Tracker
b g High Chaparral – Silk Fan (Unfuwain)
5 8 – 4p 84
25(3)

White, dark green hoops, white sleeves and cap 15500/9
Full form
Recession Proof (FR) 34 ATR Tracker
ch g Rock Of Gibraltar – Elevate (Ela-Mana-Mou)
7 8 – 2p 82
26(28)

Black, gold cross and stripe on cap 461674
Full form
Taglietelle 81 CATR Tracker
b g Tagula – Averami (Averti)
4 8 – 0 80
27(24)

Royal blue and pink diamonds, royal blue sleeves, pink armlets, pink cap 02-5708
Full form
Sohar 45 ATR Tracker
b m Iceman – Desert Joy (Daylami)
5 8 – 0 80
28(13)

Black, yellow stripe, check cap 2716-85
Full form
Los Nadis (GER) 22 DATR Tracker
ch g Hernando – La Estrella (Desert King)
9 8 – 0 80
29(26)

Pink, black hollow box, sleeves and cap 421820
Full form
Flashman 22 ATR Tracker
ch g Doyen – Si Si Si (Lomitas)
4 8 – 0 80
30(12)

Purple, gold braid, scarlet sleeves, black velvet cap, gold fringe 3-10455
Full form
Sign Manual 25 ATR Tracker
b g Motivator – New Assembly (Machiavellian)
4 8 – 0h 80
31(25)

Dark blue, red chevron, halved sleeves 7-19431
Full form
Swinging Hawk (GER) (ex4) 14 ATR Tracker
ch g Hawk Wing – Saldenschwinge (In The Wings)
7 8 – 0 80
32(9)

White, black star, white sleeves, black seams, black cap, white star 746047
Full form
High Office 21 ATR Tracker
b g High Chaparral – White House (Pursuit of Love)
7 8 – 0 80
33(11)

Dark blue and mauve diamonds, dark blue sleeves and cap 122666
Full form
Merchant of Dubai 13 ATR Tracker
b g Dubai Destination – Chameleon (Green Desert)
8 8 – 0 80
34(23)

Black, yellow sleeves, black armlets, black cap, yellow stars 374023
Full form
Jonny Delta 14 ATR Tracker
ch g Sulamani – Send Me An Angel (Lycius)
6 8 – 0 80
35(29)

Red, yellow braces, chevrons on sleeves, striped cap 224416
Full form
Capellanus (IRE) 107 ATR Tracker
b g Montjeu – Secret Dream (Zafonic)
7 8 – 0 80
36(10)

Pink, royal blue chevrons and armlets 320570
Full form
Aleksandar 21 ATR Tracker
ch g Medicean – Alexander Celebre (Peintre Celebre)
4 8 – 0 80

 

Long Handicap: Los Nadis 7 – 13, Flashman 7 – 13, Sign Manual 7 – 12, Swinging Hawk 7 – 12, High Office 7 – 11, Merchant of Dubai 7 – 11, Jonny Delta 7 – 11, Capellanus 7 – 10, Aleksandar 7 – 5

 

platinum wins!

The Racing Post says….

Fancies not helped by Cesarewitch draw

FEW of those at the head of the betting for Saturday’s Betfred Cesarewitch have been done any favours by the draw.

With a lower draw generally favourable, Tiger Cliff has been drawn in 30 while Domination is in 16, Oriental Fox has stall 20 and Lieutenant Miller is in stall 32. Big Easy is in 36, with Platinum in 21.

Ante-post gamble Smoky Hill is drawn best of those contesting favouritism in stall 14 while Sir Mark Prescott’s Pallasator is in seven. Clowance Estate has stall two while Chiberta King, with Oisin Murphy taking 5lb off his back, has stall one.

With only one turn, a 90-degree right-hander, the draw is surprisingly influential for a 2m2f handicap and Pallasator, an 11-1 shot, has a lot in his favour and with rain forecast his jockey Luke Morris feels everything is right for a big run.

Pallasator, who was fourth on his only start at two, raced three times last year and remained unbeaten. He made his first start of 2013 at Haydock last month, finishing third behind Platinum in the Old Borough Cup.

Morris feels that run will have helped put his mount spot-on for his big target and reports he has been working well since. “I’ve been really pleased with him at home and there are showers forecast, which should suit him,” said Morris.

“Hopefully he’ll build on his run at Haydock. He has been in a proper race at Haydock the last day and you would hope that he would come on as that was his first race. The step up to two and a quarter miles should suit him as well.”

It is perhaps also significant that Prescott has deemed the four-year-old worthy of an entry in next week’s Group 3 Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day.

Capellanus and Aleksandar are the two reserves for the 34-runner, £250,000 heritage handicap.

 

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