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The Betfred Cesarewitch, the second leg of the Autumn Double, takes centre stage this weekend and we take a detailed look at the marathon event before highlighting our three against the field…

3.50 Newmarket – Betfred Cesarewitch Handicap (2m2f, 3yo+, 34 runners)

Saturday’s marathon event famously starts in Cambridgeshire but finishes in Suffolk and it’s the big betting heat on what is now called Future Champions Day.

The maximum field of 34 line up and we’ve got a four-way battle for favouritism between Domination, Pallasator, Smoky Hill and Tiger Cliff with the bookies going 8/1 the field which tells you all you need to know about just how competitive this year’s renewal is.

We’re going to take a look at the key trends and then the main contenders to try and fathom out just where the value lies.

Key trends in recent years
Not surprisingly the first requirement is finding a horse who sees out every yard of the 2m2f trip.

With a maximum field of 34 runners and the race run at full tilt from the outset, it’s no surprise that every one of the last ten winners had previously won over at least two miles, either on the Flat or over jumps.

That removes no fewer than 16 of the 34 including Pallasator (just five runs to date and yet to go further than 1m6f) and Smoky Hill (came close with a 1m7f success at Fontainebleau).

From an age perspective we should put a special focus on six-year-olds and over as six out of the last ten winners fit into that category. Just two three-year-olds have prevailed over the last 20 years and that tally will soon be 2/21 as none line up this time around.

Aaim To Prosper became the first ever dual winner when adding last year’s success to his 2010 triumph but there is a strong pattern of horses who have run well in the race in the past doing so again.

And talking of Aaim To Prosper, Brian Meehan’s charge lumped top weight to victory last year, underlining that those near the head of the handicap have a fine record over the last ten years, with seven carrying 8-11 or more.

Recent good form is a pre-requisite – you have to go back to Landing Light in 2003 for the last horse to finish outside the top six on their previous run. Indeed eight of the last nine were in the top four.

In terms of significant pointers from other races, the Northumberland Plate (Oriental Fox and Brockwell both placed, with Moidore and Scatter Dice also in the top six) is the one the stands out.

Combining these other factors gives us a short list of Chiberta King, Domination, Platinum, Lieutenant Miller, Seaside Sizzler, Cosimo De Medici, Los Nadis and Jonny Delta.

Form focus
With eight on our shortlist from the trends we need to take a close look at them from both a form and going perspective and also see if any of those who missed out on the age barrier are worth a second glance because it’s not impossible for four-year-olds (two winners from 102 attempts in the last 10 years) and five-year-olds (one from 78) to win the race, just far less likely than six-year-olds and upwards (six in 134) according to the stats.

And it soon becomes apparent that Domination holds strong claims. Charles Byrnes’ runner has shone on both the Flat and over hurdles as have so many previous winners of this race.

He won over course and distance when landing the Cesarewitch Trial last September on good to firm going but by the time the big race itself came round the ground had turned against him and he instead ran in the Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham the following month.

This time around everything appears to be slotting into place. The going is good to firm for Saturday (and should go no further than good even if the predicted rain arrives on Friday) while the six-year-old has been kept fresh since back-to-back hurdle wins at Cork in August on his favoured good to firm surface.

The one slight point against him is an average draw in stall 16. You wouldn’t expect the draw to have a huge bearing over 2m2f but the evidence lately has suggested low is best, though this is far from insurmountable as Never Can Tell (36) in 2011 and Caracciola (25) in 2008 have both defied a high number.

Platinum is also interesting given his victory in the Old Borough Handicap over 1m6f at Haydock last time. Philip Kirby’s charge kept on well that day and had a whole host of his rivals in this well behind, making his 20/1 price tag for this hard to explain.

For example Oriental Fox was over 20 lengths behind that day and re-opposes on exactly the same terms yet is half the odds. And Pallasator, also around the 10/1 mark, is at least four pounds better off but has just under two lengths to make up, has yet to run over 2m+ and looks priced up on Sir Mark Prescott’s formidable reputation rather than his own form.

Lieutenant Miller‘s consistency is his strong suit – only once in 11 runs over both codes in the last two years has Nicky Henderson’s runner been out of the first three.

His handler won this with Caracciola in 2008 but you do just get the impression that one or two are likely to get the better of him again.

Of the rest Chiberta King has struggled in his two runs since winning the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot, Seaside Sizzler looks a touch one-paced, while Cosimo De Medici and Jim Goldie duo Los Nadis and Jonny Delta simply don’t have the form to suggest they will contend at the sharp end.

And of those ruled out on the age count it’s Tiger Cliff who is hardest to leave out of the equation.

Lady Cecil’s four-year-old has had a stellar season and Aaim To Prosper showed 12 months ago that it is possible to win off the top weight of 9-10.

Tiger Cliff has been given a decent break since landing the Ebor in fine style in August and has that key weapon of a turn of foot allied to his undoubted stamina.

He’s yet to be unplaced in seven runs to date, handles most types of going (winning on good to firm at Newmarket back in May) and has now drifted out to a backable each-way price on account of a high draw (32).

VERDICT:
This is once again a tricky puzzle to solve and getting the best each-way terms is vital to at least try and boost the chances of a return.

Our 1-2-3-4 are Domination, Tiger Cliff, Platinum and Lieutenant Miller and at the prices the one which makes the most appeal is PLATINUM who seems to be the forgotten horse of the race following his Haydock success just over a month ago.

That was his third victory on the bounce and the Middleham raider would surely be a shorter price if he hailed from a bigger stable.

His connections have done wonders with him this term and they also look set to get the rain they were hoping for to take the ground towards good.

Both Bet Victor and Sky Bet are paying five places and go 20/1 and that’s the route we’ll be taking.

Selection:
Platinum each-way at 20/1 (Bet Victor and Sky Bet, a quarter the odds 1,2,3,4,5).

And courtesy of Attheraces….

No/Drw	Silk	Form	Horse	Age / Wt	Jockey / Trainer	OR
1(30) T		132-121 Full form	Tiger Cliff (IRE) 49 CATR Tracker b g Tiger Hill – Verbania (In The Wings)	4 9 – 10	T P Queally Lady J Cecil	104
2(20) T		203501 Full form	Oriental Fox (GER) (ex4) 21 CDATR Tracker CH g Lomitas – Oriental pearl (Big Shuffle)	5 9 – 10	J P Murtagh M Johnston	104
3(34) T		124-711 Full form	Thecornishcockney 226 ATR Tracker bl g Cockney Rebel – Glittering Image (Sadler’s Wells)	4 9 – 8t	S Donohoe J Ryan	102
4(1) T		25-5136 Full form	Chiberta King 29 CATR Tracker b g King’s Best – Glam Rock (Nashwan)	7 9 – 8p	Oisin Murphy (5) A M Balding	102
5(7) T		4/111-3 Full form	Pallasator 35 BFATR Tracker  b g Motivator – Ela Athena (Ezzoud)	4 9 – 6	Luke Morris Sir Mark Prescott	100
6(16) T		201-012 Full form	Domination 75 (48J)  CDATR Tracker b g Motivator – Soliza (Intikhab)	6 9 – 1	F M Berry C Byrnes	95
7(5) T		612-27 Full form	Earth Amber 164 ATR Tracker ch f Hurricane Run – Too Marvelous (Dansili)	4 9 – 0	R Hughes N J Henderson	94
8(22) T		116160 Full form	Broxbourne (IRE) 21 ATR Tracker b f Refuse To Bend – Rafting (Darshaan)	4 9 – 0	W Buick M Johnston	94
9(21) T		152111 Full form	Platinum (IRE) (ex4) 35 ATR Tracker b g Azamour – Dazzling Park (Warning)	6 9 – 0p	R Kennemore P A Kirby	94
10(2) T		1-13632 Full form	Clowance Estate (IRE) 35 ATR Tracker b g Teofilo – Whirly Bird (Nashwan)	4 8 – 13	G Lee R Charlton	93
11(14) T		17-3714 Full form	Smoky Hill (IRE) 27 ATR Tracker gr c Galileo – Danaskaya (Danehill)	4 8 – 11	U Rispoli M Delzangles	91
12(32) T		13-2132 Full form	Lieutenant Miller 73 DBFATR Tracker  b g Beat All – Still Runs Deep (Karinga Bay)	7 8 – 11	R L Moore N J Henderson	91
13(17) T		343573 Full form	Brockwell 21 BFATR Tracker b g Singspiel – Noble Plum (King’s Best)	4 8 – 11h1	Jason Hart (3) Tom Dascombe	91
14(15) T		926624 Full form	Moidore 22 ATR Tracker b g Galileo – Flash of Gold (Darshaan)	4 8 – 10	Daryl Byrne (5) J J Quinn	90
15(36) T		11510/8 Full form	Big Easy (GER) 116 ATR Tracker b g Ransom O’War – Basilea Gold (Monsun)	6 8 – 10	J P Spencer P J Hobbs	90
16(35) T		7-14333 Full form	Seaside Sizzler 34 ATR Tracker ch g Rahy – Via Borghese (Seattle Dancer)	6 8 – 8tv	Jim Crowley R M Beckett	88
17(18) T		725604 Full form	Scatter Dice (IRE) 13 ATR Tracker ch f Manduro – Sensation (Soviet Star)	4 8 – 8v1	S De Sousa M Johnston	88
18(6) T		1/5-7324 Full form	Waterclock (IRE) 39 ATR Tracker ch g Notnowcato – Waterfall One (Nashwan)	4 8 – 8p1	Joey Haynes (5) R Charlton	88
19(19) T		083614 Full form	Cosimo De Medici 21 CDATR Tracker b g Medicean – Wish (Danehill)	6 8 – 7	P Hanagan H Morrison	87
20(8) T		72-8725 Full form	Albert Bridge 21 ATR Tracker   g g Hernando – Alvarita (Selkirk)	5 8 – 7	W M Lordan R M Beckett	87
21(27) T		163727 Full form	Cousin Khee 35 ATR Tracker b g Sakhee – Cugina (Distant Relative)	6 8 – 7	Andrea Atzeni H Morrison	87
22(31) T		031600 Full form	Nanton (USA) 21 ATR Tracker gr g Spinning World – Grab the Green (Cozzene)	11 8 – 5	B McHugh J S Goldie	85
23(4) T		515110 Full form	Poyle Thomas 35 ATR Tracker b g Rail Link – Lost In Lucca (Inchinor)	4 8 – 4p1	Martin Lane R M Beckett	84
24(33) T		413510 Full form	Eagle Rock (IRE) (ex4) 21 ATR Tracker b g High Chaparral – Silk Fan (Unfuwain)	5 8 – 4p	A Mullen T P Tate	84
25(3) T		15500/9 Full form	Recession Proof (FR) 34 ATR Tracker ch g Rock Of Gibraltar – Elevate (Ela-Mana-Mou)	7 8 – 2p	C R King (5) J J Quinn	82
26(28) T		461674 Full form	Taglietelle 81 CATR Tracker b g Tagula – Averami (Averti)	4 8 – 0	David Probert A M Balding	80
27(24) T		02-5708 Full form	Sohar 45 ATR Tracker b m Iceman – Desert Joy (Daylami)	5 8 – 0	Catherine Gannon J A R Toller	80
28(13) T		2716-85 Full form	Los Nadis (GER) 22 DATR Tracker ch g Hernando – La Estrella (Desert King)	9 8 – 0	Joe Doyle (7) J S Goldie	80
29(26) T		421820 Full form	Flashman 22 ATR Tracker ch g Doyen – Si Si Si (Lomitas)	4 8 – 0	D Fentiman R A Fahey	80
30(12) T		3-10455 Full form	Sign Manual 25 ATR Tracker b g Motivator – New Assembly (Machiavellian)	4 8 – 0h	J Quinn M L W Bell	80
31(25) T		7-19431 Full form	Swinging Hawk (GER) (ex4) 14 ATR Tracker ch g Hawk Wing – Saldenschwinge (In The Wings)	7 8 – 0	Ryan Powell (3) Ian Williams	80
32(9) T		746047 Full form	High Office 21 ATR Tracker b g High Chaparral – White House (Pursuit of Love)	7 8 – 0	K T O’Neill R A Fahey	80
33(11) T		122666 Full form	Merchant of Dubai 13 ATR Tracker b g Dubai Destination – Chameleon (Green Desert)	8 8 – 0	Shelley Birkett (5) J S Goldie	80
34(23) T		374023 Full form	Jonny Delta 14 ATR Tracker ch g Sulamani – Send Me An Angel (Lycius)	6 8 – 0	Jack Garritty (7) J S Goldie	80
35(29) T		224416 Full form	Capellanus (IRE) 107 ATR Tracker b g Montjeu – Secret Dream (Zafonic)	7 8 – 0	Reserve 1 B Ellison	80
36(10) T		320570 Full form	Aleksandar 21 ATR Tracker ch g Medicean – Alexander Celebre (Peintre Celebre)	4 8 – 0	Reserve 2 J S Goldie	80

The Racing Post says….

Fancies not helped by Cesarewitch draw

FEW of those at the head of the betting for Saturday’s Betfred Cesarewitch have been done any favours by the draw.

With a lower draw generally favourable, Tiger Cliff has been drawn in 30 while Domination is in 16, Oriental Fox has stall 20 and Lieutenant Miller is in stall 32. Big Easy is in 36, with Platinum in 21.

With only one turn, a 90-degree right-hander, the draw is surprisingly influential for a 2m2f handicap and Pallasator, an 11-1 shot, has a lot in his favour and with rain forecast his jockey Luke Morris feels everything is right for a big run.

Pallasator, who was fourth on his only start at two, raced three times last year and remained unbeaten. He made his first start of 2013 at Haydock last month, finishing third behind Platinum in the Old Borough Cup.

Morris feels that run will have helped put his mount spot-on for his big target and reports he has been working well since. “I’ve been really pleased with him at home and there are showers forecast, which should suit him,” said Morris.

“Hopefully he’ll build on his run at Haydock. He has been in a proper race at Haydock the last day and you would hope that he would come on as that was his first race. The step up to two and a quarter miles should suit him as well.”

It is perhaps also significant that Prescott has deemed the four-year-old worthy of an entry in next week’s Group 3 Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day.

Capellanus and Aleksandar are the two reserves for the 34-runner, £250,000 heritage handicap.